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Golub Capital BDC Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) Loses -20.05% From High. Why That Could Change?

March 14, 2023
in Market

With over 1.86 million Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) shares trading Monday and a closing price of $12.46 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $23.21 million. The shares have shown a negative half year performance of -9.45% and its price on 03/13/23 lost nearly -1.11%. Currently, there are 170.90M common shares owned by the public and among those 161.51M shares have been available to trade.

An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 5 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for GBDC have a consensus price objective of $14.81. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $15.50 and a low of $14.25. The average price target is 15.87% above its recent price level and an upside to the estimated low will see the stock gain 12.56% over that period. But an upside of 19.61% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while median target price for the stock is $14.75.

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Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 2 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 2 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 10,000 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 0 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 0 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in Golub Capital BDC Inc. are Baillie Gifford Investment Funds, VanEck Vectors – BDC Income ETF, and iShares II Plc – Listed Private E. Baillie Gifford Investment Funds owns 2.75 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $38.75 million. The company bought an additional 1.55 million shares recently to bring their total holdings to about 1.61% of the shares outstanding. iShares II Plc – Listed Private E now owns shares totaling to 0.69% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of Golub Capital BDC Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) opened at $12.46, down -$0.14 from a prior closing price of $12.60. However, the script later moved the day high at 12.70, down -1.11%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of -9.64% and -5.03% over the past three months. GBDC shares are trading -5.32% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -16.71% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $11.94 and touched a high of $15.58 over the same period. GBDC has an average intraday trading volume of 751.52K shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by -8.99%, -8.63%, and -7.43% respectively.

Institutional ownership of Golub Capital BDC Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) shares accounts for 45.20% of the company’s 170.90M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own –, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for — and — respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $2.22B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 0.69. The stock’s trailing 12-month PE ratio is 18.35, while the earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at $0.68. The company has a PEG of 1.84 and the debt-to-equity ratio at 1.23. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 2.76% over the week and 1.71% over the month.

Analysts forecast that Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) will achieve an EPS of $0.38 for the current quarter, $0.39 for the next quarter and $1.5 for 2024. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is $0.33 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of $0.4. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $0.39 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to decrease by -55.60%, and 10.79% over the next financial year. EPS should grow at an annualized rate of 10.00% over the next five years, compared to -8.70% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 5 brokerage firm advisors rate Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) as a “Moderate Buy” at a consensus score of 2.20. Specifically, 3 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 2 of the 5 advise that investors “hold,” and 0 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the GBDC, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Oppenheimer stated their Outperform rating for the stock in a research note on September 22, 2021, with the firm’s price target at $16. Raymond James on their part issued Mkt Perform rating on February 10, 2017.

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