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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG): Hunting Genuine Value In Market Debris

January 17, 2023
in Finance

The Vanguard Group, Inc. recently announced the acquisition of new stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Consumer Cyclical company by 4.63% to 2.51 million shares with purchase of 0.11 million shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 9.04% valued currently at $3.48 billion. In addition, BlackRock Fund Advisors raised its holdings by 4139.0 to 1.3 million shares. And Capital Research & Management Co has lifted its position by 20.16% or 0.18 million shares – to 1.08 million shares.

With over 0.29 million Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) shares trading Friday and a closing price of $1524.57 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $442.09 million. The shares have shown a positive half year performance of 17.28% and its price on 01/13/23 gained nearly 0.80%. Currently, there are 27.77M common shares owned by the public and among those 27.55M shares have been available to trade.

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An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 35 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for CMG have a consensus price objective of $1778.81. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $2000.00 and a low of $1450.00. The average price target is 14.09% above its recent price level and a downside to the estimated low will see the stock lose -5.14% over that period. But an upside of 23.77% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while median target price for the stock is $1800.00.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 102 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 30 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 72,328 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 72 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 79,270 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. are Pershing Square Holdings Ltd., Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, and American Funds Growth Fund of Ame. Pershing Square Holdings Ltd. owns 0.96 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $1.34 billion. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index bought 4174.0 shares to see its total holdings expand to 0.84 million shares valued at over $1.16 billion and representing 3.02% of the shares outstanding. American Funds Growth Fund of Ame sold 73644.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 0.78 million shares at a value of $1.08 billion. American Funds Growth Fund of Ame now owns shares totaling to 2.81% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) opened at $1,503.89, down -$8.58 from a prior closing price of $1512.47. However, the script later moved the day high at 1,525.44, up 0.80%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of 8.74% and -2.16% over the past three months. CMG shares are trading 9.88% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -1.90% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $1196.28 and touched a high of $1754.56 over the same period. CMG has an average intraday trading volume of 301.42K shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by 6.81%, 3.52%, and 3.07% respectively.

Institutional ownership of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) shares accounts for 96.30% of the company’s 27.77M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 61.85%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 67.73% and 34.25% respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $41.93B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 1.26. The stock’s trailing 12-month PE ratio is 53.07, while the earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at $28.73. The company has a PEG of 1.94 and a Quick Ratio of 1.30 with the debt-to-equity ratio at 0.00. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 2.18% over the week and 2.36% over the month.

Analysts forecast that Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) will achieve an EPS of $8.91 for the current quarter, $8.85 for the next quarter and $43.07 for 2023. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is $8.61 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of $9.36. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $5.58 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to increase by 82.90%, and 28.91% over the next financial year. EPS should shrink at an annualized rate of 27.36% over the next five years, compared to 97.10% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 35 brokerage firm advisors rate Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) as a “Strong Buy” at a consensus score of 1.80. Specifically, 22 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 10 of the 35 advise that investors “hold,” and 0 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the CMG, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Stephens stated their Overweight rating for the stock in a research note on September 23, 2022, with the firm’s price target at $1900. Bernstein coverage for the Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) stock in a research note released on September 08, 2022 offered a Outperform rating with a price target of $2000. Truist was of a view on July 27, 2022 that the stock is Buy, while RBC Capital Mkts gave the stock Outperform rating on July 27, 2022, issuing a price target of $1800- $1825. Morgan Stanley on their part issued Overweight rating on July 27, 2022.

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